Philadelphia Flyers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Sean CouturierPoints1
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals2
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists2
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:16Nazem Kadri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (4), MacKenzie Weegar (1)3–6
- P317:11Travis Konecny Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (1), Morgan Frost (1)3–5
- P315:34Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (3), Jake Bean (2)2–5
- P314:46Mikael Backlund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (1), Connor Zary (2)2–4
- P218:11Joel Farabee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (2), Sean Couturier (1)2–3
- P214:41Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (3), Jonathan Huberdeau (2)1–3
- P27:05Travis Konecny Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (1), Erik Johnson (1)1–2
- P17:43MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (1), Andrei Kuzmenko (2)0–2
- P15:37Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (2), Anthony Mantha (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:37Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (2), Anthony Mantha (2)PHI 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 55% → 69% +14CGY 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P17:43MacKenzie Weegar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (1), Andrei Kuzmenko (2)PHI 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 70% → 82% +12CGY 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P27:05Travis Konecny Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (1), Erik Johnson (1)PHI 1 – 2 CGY · PHI 14% → 28% +14PHI 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P214:41Nazem Kadri Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (3), Jonathan Huberdeau (2)PHI 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 74% → 89% +15CGY 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P218:11Joel Farabee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (2), Sean Couturier (1)PHI 2 – 3 CGY · PHI 10% → 25% +15PHI 10% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 55%
- ML PHI +115 / CGY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- CGY: Elo 60.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CGY -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.1 – 3.4 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | 0 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +73 Elo | CGY 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 59.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.9% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 19–2023rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.