Philadelphia Flyers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Cam YorkGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists1
- Cam YorkPoints1
Canucks- Teddy BluegerGoals1
- Derek ForbortAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Morgan Frost Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Travis Konecny Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jake DeBrusk Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P32:48Cam York Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (1), Garnet Hathaway (1)2–2
- P211:25Teddy Blueger Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Derek Forbort (1), Pius Suter (1)1–2
- P117:24Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (1), Bobby Brink (1)1–1
- P112:55Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:55Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (1)PHI 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 63% → 77% +14VAN 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P117:24Tyson Foerster Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (1), Bobby Brink (1)PHI 1 – 1 VAN · PHI 23% → 38% +15PHI 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P211:25Teddy Blueger Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Derek Forbort (1), Pius Suter (1)PHI 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 60% → 78% +18VAN 60% → 78%+18 pts
- P32:48Cam York Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (1), Garnet Hathaway (1)PHI 2 – 2 VAN · PHI 19% → 42% +23PHI 19% → 42%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 64%
- ML PHI +170 / VAN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- VAN: Elo 61.9%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- VAN -180
- PHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.3 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −4 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VAN: Kevin Lankinen: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +85 Elo | VAN 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.9% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 26–135th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 2–0 VAN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.