Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Anthony ManthaGoals1
- Nazem KadriAssists2
- Anthony ManthaPoints2
Canucks- Brock BoeserGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- Brock BoeserPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:33Connor Zary Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (1), Rasmus Andersson (1)6–5
- P318:23J.T. Miller Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (2)5–5
- P310:40Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brayden Pachal (1), Jake Bean (1)5–4
- P38:16MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (1), Nazem Kadri (2)4–4
- P32:41Martin Pospisil Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (1), Kevin Bahl (1)3–4
- P217:01Rasmus Andersson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (1), Andrei Kuzmenko (1)2–4
- P117:18Brock Boeser Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (1), Quinn Hughes (1)1–4
- P115:49Anthony Mantha Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none1–3
- P112:16Conor Garland Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Hoglander (1), Aatu Raty (1)0–3
- P111:48Brock Boeser Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (1), Elias Pettersson (1)0–2
- P19:40Daniel Sprong Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (1), Danton Heinen (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:40Daniel Sprong Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (1), Danton Heinen (1)CGY 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 63% → 76% +14VAN 63% → 76%+14 pts
- P38:16MacKenzie Weegar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (1), Nazem Kadri (2)CGY 4 – 4 VAN · CGY 16% → 44% +28CGY 16% → 44%+28 pts
- P310:40Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brayden Pachal (1), Jake Bean (1)CGY 5 – 4 VAN · CGY 45% → 78% +34CGY 45% → 78%+34 pts
- P318:23J.T. Miller Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (2)CGY 5 – 5 VAN · VAN 2% → 52% +51VAN 2% → 52%+51 pts
- OT1:33Connor Zary Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (1), Rasmus Andersson (1)CGY 6 – 5 VAN · CGY 47% → 92% +46CGY 47% → 92%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 64%
- ML CGY +165 / VAN -195
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- VAN: Elo 64.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- VAN -175
- CGY +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.6 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −3 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.54 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +101 Elo | VAN 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 24th of 3116–23 | Road vs home | 26–135th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–3 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.