Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Justin KirklandGoals1
- Kevin BahlAssists1
- Anthony ManthaPoints1
Oilers- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:36Connor Zary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P39:27Justin Kirkland Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Kevin Bahl (2), Rasmus Andersson (3)3–1
- P37:06Anthony Mantha Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (4), Rasmus Andersson (2)2–1
- P27:30Rasmus Andersson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P11:16Jeff Skinner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (2), Connor McDavid (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:16Jeff Skinner Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (2), Connor McDavid (2)CGY 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 69% → 80% +12EDM 69% → 80%+12 pts
- P27:30Rasmus Andersson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 1 EDM · CGY 20% → 36% +16CGY 20% → 36%+16 pts
- P37:06Anthony Mantha Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Martin Pospisil (4), Rasmus Andersson (2)CGY 2 – 1 EDM · CGY 41% → 71% +30CGY 41% → 71%+30 pts
- P39:27Justin Kirkland Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Kevin Bahl (2), Rasmus Andersson (3)CGY 3 – 1 EDM · CGY 75% → 94% +19CGY 75% → 94%+19 pts
- P319:36Connor Zary Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCGY 4 – 1 EDM · CGY 100% → 100% +0CGY 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 69%
- ML CGY +210 / EDM -250
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.9%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- EDM -221
- CGY +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.7 – 3.8 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | EDM and CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −1 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.54 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +107 Elo | EDM 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 24th of 3116–23 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–3 EDM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.