Chicago Blackhawks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Connor BedardGoals1
- Connor BedardAssists2
- Connor BedardPoints3
Oilers- Corey PerryGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists1
- Corey PerryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:13Teuvo Teravainen Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (2), Seth Jones (3)5–2
- P310:01Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (1)4–2
- P35:35Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (2), Connor Bedard (4)4–1
- P213:58Connor Bedard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (2), TJ Brodie (1)3–1
- P210:19Seth Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (3), Teuvo Teravainen (1)2–1
- P24:55Corey Perry Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jeff Skinner (1), Mattias Ekholm (1)1–1
- P115:50Philipp Kurashev Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Taylor Hall (1), Wyatt Kaiser (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:50Philipp Kurashev Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Taylor Hall (1), Wyatt Kaiser (1)CHI 1 – 0 EDM · CHI 28% → 44% +16CHI 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P24:55Corey Perry Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jeff Skinner (1), Mattias Ekholm (1)CHI 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 51% → 69% +18EDM 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P210:19Seth Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (3), Teuvo Teravainen (1)CHI 2 – 1 EDM · CHI 32% → 52% +20CHI 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P213:58Connor Bedard Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (2), TJ Brodie (1)CHI 3 – 1 EDM · CHI 55% → 75% +20CHI 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P35:35Teuvo Teravainen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (2), Connor Bedard (4)CHI 4 – 1 EDM · CHI 88% → 97% +9CHI 88% → 97%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 75%
- ML CHI +280 / EDM -350
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- EDM: Elo 74.8%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- EDM -296
- CHI +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 4.0 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +1 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +189 Elo | EDM 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 66.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.4% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 31st of 316–33 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.