San Jose Sharks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Ty DellandreaGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Stars- Matt DucheneGoals1
- Mason MarchmentAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Wyatt Johnston Goal Snap Shot1–3
- SO0:00Mikael Granlund Goal Wrist Shot1–3
- SO0:00Matt Duchene Goal Wrist Shot1–3
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Wrist Shot1–3
- P217:12Roope Hintz Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (1), Wyatt Johnston (3)2–2
- P215:12Ty Dellandrea Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (1)2–1
- P212:03Matt Duchene Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Logan Stankoven (5)1–1
- P26:24Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:24Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 0 DAL · SJ 30% → 48% +19SJ 30% → 48%+19 pts
- P212:03Matt Duchene Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mason Marchment (3), Logan Stankoven (5)SJ 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 48% → 69% +21DAL 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P215:12Ty Dellandrea Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Sturm (1)SJ 2 – 1 DAL · SJ 32% → 55% +22SJ 32% → 55%+22 pts
- P217:12Roope Hintz Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (1), Wyatt Johnston (3)SJ 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 44% → 67% +23DAL 44% → 67%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 76%
- ML SJ +300 / DAL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 75.1%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -317
- SJ +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 1.9 – 3.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +192 Elo | DAL 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 67.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.8 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.6% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 30th of 318–32 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.