Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken
Stars- Sam SteelGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Sam SteelPoints1
Scoring summary
- P116:30Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (1), Logan Stankoven (4)0–2
- P116:17Sam Steel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (1), Thomas Harley (2)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:17Sam Steel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colin Blackwell (1), Thomas Harley (2)SEA 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 61% → 76% +15DAL 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P116:30Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (1), Logan Stankoven (4)SEA 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 76% → 87% +11DAL 76% → 87%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML SEA +155 / DAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -166
- SEA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | DAL and SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −13 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +107 Elo | DAL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–3 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.