Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Kevin HayesGoals1
- Kevin HayesPoints1
Jets- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Colin MillerAssists2
- Mason AppletonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:30Nino Niederreiter Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (6), Dylan DeMelo (1)3–6
- P37:41Mason Appleton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (5)3–5
- P34:20Adam Lowry Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (3), Josh Morrissey (5)3–4
- P31:39Lars Eller Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–3
- P219:29Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (5)2–3
- P217:36Mark Scheifele Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Miller (3), Logan Stanley (1)2–2
- P212:18Kyle Connor Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (4), Colin Miller (2)2–1
- P25:21Lars Eller Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Erik Karlsson (4), Cody Glass (2)2–0
- P21:30Kevin Hayes Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (1), Jesse Puljujarvi (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:30Kevin Hayes Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (1), Jesse Puljujarvi (4)PIT 1 – 0 WPG · PIT 47% → 64% +18PIT 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P217:36Mark Scheifele Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Colin Miller (3), Logan Stanley (1)PIT 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 30% → 53% +23WPG 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P219:29Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (5)PIT 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 53% → 75% +23WPG 53% → 75%+23 pts
- P31:39Lars Eller Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 3 – 3 WPG · PIT 24% → 48% +24PIT 24% → 48%+24 pts
- P34:20Adam Lowry Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mason Appleton (3), Josh Morrissey (5)PIT 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 52% → 78% +26WPG 52% → 78%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML PIT +110 / WPG -130
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 56.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.1 – 3.4 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −37 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.91 more goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +42 Elo | WPG 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 4.52nd of 32 |
| 28th of 324.2 | Goals allowed | 1.31st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.7 | Margin | +3.31st of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 54.5%6th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 95.2%1st of 32 |
| 4th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.