Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mason AppletonGoals1
- Adam LowryAssists2
- Mason AppletonPoints2
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals1
- Kevin BahlAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:46Mason Appleton Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (4), Adam Lowry (5)5–3
- P316:16Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (4)4–3
- P34:19Nazem Kadri Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (6)3–3
- P31:01Dylan Samberg Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (9), Mason Appleton (5)3–2
- P217:28Rasmus Andersson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (5)2–2
- P117:37Kyle Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (4), Neal Pionk (8)2–1
- P11:51Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (4), Josh Morrissey (7)1–1
- P10:28Mikael Backlund Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Bahl (3), Connor Zary (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:37Kyle Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (4), Neal Pionk (8)WPG 2 – 1 CGY · WPG 52% → 68% +17WPG 52% → 68%+17 pts
- P217:28Rasmus Andersson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (5)WPG 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 26% → 49% +22CGY 26% → 49%+22 pts
- P31:01Dylan Samberg Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Neal Pionk (9), Mason Appleton (5)WPG 3 – 2 CGY · WPG 51% → 75% +24WPG 51% → 75%+24 pts
- P34:19Nazem Kadri Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Kuzmenko (6)WPG 3 – 3 CGY · CGY 23% → 49% +26CGY 23% → 49%+26 pts
- P316:16Cole Perfetti Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nino Niederreiter (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (4)WPG 4 – 3 CGY · WPG 51% → 93% +42WPG 51% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML WPG -120 / CGY +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- WPG: Elo 47.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WPG -109
- CGY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.3 – 3.2 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −31 | +9 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.78 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +20 Elo | CGY 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.4 | Goals scored | 3.77th of 32 |
| 1st of 321.9 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.6 | Margin | +1.06th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 46.1%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3293.8% | Save percentage | 92.0%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 1–2 CGY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.