Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Kevin HayesAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Flames- MacKenzie WeegarGoals1
- Blake ColemanAssists2
- Blake ColemanPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Justin Kirkland Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Bryan Rust Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Rasmus Andersson Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Anthony Mantha Goal Backhand2–3
- SO0:00Rickard Rakell Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- P319:17Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (3), Rasmus Andersson (5)3–3
- P313:40Noel Acciari Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Cody Glass (3), Marcus Pettersson (3)3–2
- P37:46MacKenzie Weegar Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Daniil Miromanov (1), Blake Coleman (2)2–2
- P32:32Rickard Rakell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (1), Matt Grzelcyk (3)2–1
- P26:31Bryan Rust Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (6), Erik Karlsson (5)1–1
- P111:48Rasmus Andersson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (2), Ryan Lomberg (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:31Bryan Rust Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (6), Erik Karlsson (5)PIT 1 – 1 CGY · PIT 30% → 48% +19PIT 30% → 48%+19 pts
- P32:32Rickard Rakell Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Hayes (1), Matt Grzelcyk (3)PIT 2 – 1 CGY · PIT 49% → 74% +25PIT 49% → 74%+25 pts
- P37:46MacKenzie Weegar Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Daniil Miromanov (1), Blake Coleman (2)PIT 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 22% → 51% +29CGY 22% → 51%+29 pts
- P313:40Noel Acciari Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Cody Glass (3), Marcus Pettersson (3)PIT 3 – 2 CGY · PIT 49% → 87% +37PIT 49% → 87%+37 pts
- P319:17Nazem Kadri Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (3), Rasmus Andersson (5)PIT 3 – 3 CGY · CGY <1% → 50% +50CGY <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 52%
- ML PIT +100 / CGY -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- CGY: Elo 57.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CGY -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 3.3 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | +8 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +49 Elo | CGY 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 4.04th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.4 | Goals allowed | 2.45th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +1.63rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.4% | Shot share | 48.4%22nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3287.9% | Save percentage | 91.7%8th of 32 |
| 13th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–5 | 5–0 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 5–0 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.