Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Blake ColemanGoals1
- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals1
- Brandon MontourAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:48Jordan Eberle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (3)1–2
- P212:25Chandler Stephenson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (5), Jaden Schwartz (3)1–1
- P119:51Blake Coleman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:51Blake Coleman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (2)CGY 1 – 0 SEA · CGY 44% → 62% +18CGY 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P212:25Chandler Stephenson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (5), Jaden Schwartz (3)CGY 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 34% → 55% +21SEA 34% → 55%+21 pts
- OT0:48Jordan Eberle Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (3)CGY 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 52% → 92% +40SEA 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML CGY +125 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -133
- CGY +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +5 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +38 Elo | SEA 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.8 | Goals scored | 4.04th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.215th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+2.3 | Margin | +0.87th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.3% | Shot share | 51.8%10th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 2–2 SEA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.