Philadelphia Flyers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Cam YorkGoals1
- Garnet HathawayAssists2
- Garnet HathawayPoints2
Kraken- Jared McCannGoals1
- Jared McCannAssists2
- Jared McCannPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:52Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (2), Adam Larsson (2)4–6
- P312:32Jamie Drysdale Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matvei Michkov (2)4–5
- P310:19Cam York Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (2), Bobby Brink (3)3–5
- P217:52Shane Wright Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (2), Jared McCann (4)2–5
- P217:44Jordan Eberle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (3), Yanni Gourde (3)2–4
- P214:57Eeli Tolvanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (4), Shane Wright (1)2–3
- P23:06Jared McCann Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (3), Vince Dunn (2)2–2
- P118:58Scott Laughton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (3), Ryan Poehling (3)2–1
- P118:15Brandon Montour Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (3), Ryker Evans (3)1–1
- P14:21Scott Laughton Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Ryan Poehling (2), Garnet Hathaway (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:15Brandon Montour Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (3), Ryker Evans (3)PHI 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 36% → 54% +17SEA 36% → 54%+17 pts
- P118:58Scott Laughton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Garnet Hathaway (3), Ryan Poehling (3)PHI 2 – 1 SEA · PHI 46% → 64% +17PHI 46% → 64%+17 pts
- P23:06Jared McCann Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (3), Vince Dunn (2)PHI 2 – 2 SEA · SEA 35% → 53% +18SEA 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P214:57Eeli Tolvanen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (4), Shane Wright (1)PHI 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 53% → 74% +21SEA 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P217:44Jordan Eberle Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (3), Yanni Gourde (3)PHI 2 – 4 SEA · SEA 75% → 90% +15SEA 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML PHI +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.1 – 3.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | −6 | PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.42 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.0 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 32 |
| 6th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 51.4%14th of 32 |
| 24th of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 89.9%17th of 32 |
| 20th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.