Seattle Kraken at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Jamie OleksiakAssists2
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Predators- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists1
- Brady SkjeiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:56Adam Larsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–3
- P311:57Jared McCann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (1), Jamie Oleksiak (2)6–3
- P32:40Jordan Eberle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (2), Jamie Oleksiak (1)5–3
- P31:19Jaden Schwartz Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (1), Chandler Stephenson (2)4–3
- P217:17Brady Skjei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (1), Filip Forsberg (2)3–3
- P119:27Brandon Tanev Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (2), Yanni Gourde (2)3–2
- P117:00Tommy Novak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1), Luke Evangelista (2)2–2
- P114:47Michael McCarron Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Juuso Parssinen (1), Alexandre Carrier (1)2–1
- P17:07Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (1), Jaden Schwartz (1)2–0
- P13:37Ryker Evans Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Larsson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:00Tommy Novak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Jankowski (1), Luke Evangelista (2)SEA 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 44% → 61% +17NSH 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P119:27Brandon Tanev Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (2), Yanni Gourde (2)SEA 3 – 2 NSH · SEA 39% → 57% +18SEA 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P217:17Brady Skjei Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (1), Filip Forsberg (2)SEA 3 – 3 NSH · NSH 35% → 58% +23NSH 35% → 58%+23 pts
- P31:19Jaden Schwartz Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (1), Chandler Stephenson (2)SEA 4 – 3 NSH · SEA 43% → 68% +25SEA 43% → 68%+25 pts
- P32:40Jordan Eberle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (2), Jamie Oleksiak (1)SEA 5 – 3 NSH · SEA 69% → 88% +19SEA 69% → 88%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 63%
- ML SEA +160 / NSH -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NSH: Elo 61.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -170
- SEA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +4 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +79 Elo | NSH 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 58.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 51.1%13th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 22–1714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.