Nashville Predators at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:40Dylan Larkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–3
- P36:35Andrew Copp Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Lucas Raymond (3), Simon Edvinsson (1)0–2
- P21:02J.T. Compher Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (1), Moritz Seider (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:02J.T. Compher Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (1), Moritz Seider (2)NSH 0 – 1 DET · DET 44% → 61% +18DET 44% → 61%+18 pts
- P36:35Andrew Copp Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Lucas Raymond (3), Simon Edvinsson (1)NSH 0 – 2 DET · DET 75% → 93% +18DET 75% → 93%+18 pts
- P319:40Dylan Larkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 0 – 3 DET · DET 100% → 100% +0DET 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 58%
- ML NSH -150 / DET +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- NSH: Elo 47.1%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NSH -138
- DET +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.5 – 3.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +8 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +20 Elo | DET 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 47.1%24th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3124–15 | Road vs home | 23–1612th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.