Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Matvei MichkovGoals2
- Egor ZamulaAssists1
- Matvei MichkovPoints2
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:56Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (4)3–4
- P316:18Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (3), Leon Draisaitl (1)3–3
- P219:37Bobby Brink Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (1), Joel Farabee (2)3–2
- P214:01Connor Brown Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (2), Darnell Nurse (1)2–2
- P26:26Adam Henrique Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mattias Janmark (1), Brett Kulak (1)2–1
- P19:21Matvei Michkov Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Frost (3), Travis Konecny (1)2–0
- P14:46Matvei Michkov Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (1), Morgan Frost (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:26Adam Henrique Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mattias Janmark (1), Brett Kulak (1)PHI 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 25% → 42% +18EDM 25% → 42%+18 pts
- P214:01Connor Brown Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (2), Darnell Nurse (1)PHI 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 38% → 60% +22EDM 38% → 60%+22 pts
- P219:37Bobby Brink Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (1), Joel Farabee (2)PHI 3 – 2 EDM · PHI 41% → 66% +24PHI 41% → 66%+24 pts
- P316:18Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (3), Leon Draisaitl (1)PHI 3 – 3 EDM · EDM 8% → 54% +45EDM 8% → 54%+45 pts
- OT0:56Leon Draisaitl Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (4)PHI 3 – 4 EDM · EDM 54% → 93% +39EDM 54% → 93%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 65%
- ML PHI +175 / EDM -210
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- EDM: Elo 63.0%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -186
- PHI +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.7 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −2 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +92 Elo | EDM 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 63.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3154.9% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.