Carolina Hurricanes at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- Jesperi KotkaniemiAssists1
- Jack RoslovicPoints1
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Justin KirklandAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:43Eric Robinson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pyotr Kochetkov (1)4–2
- P313:05Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (3), Rasmus Andersson (6)3–2
- P213:01Jake Bean Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (4), Mikael Backlund (3)3–1
- P21:59Martin Necas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (2), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (5)3–0
- P20:41Jack Roslovic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (1), Andrei Svechnikov (4)2–0
- P112:29Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (5), Martin Necas (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:29Seth Jarvis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (5), Martin Necas (5)CAR 1 – 0 CGY · CAR 62% → 76% +14CAR 62% → 76%+14 pts
- P20:41Jack Roslovic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (1), Andrei Svechnikov (4)CAR 2 – 0 CGY · CAR 77% → 88% +11CAR 77% → 88%+11 pts
- P21:59Martin Necas Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (2), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (5)CAR 3 – 0 CGY · CAR 88% → 95% +7CAR 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P213:01Jake Bean Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (4), Mikael Backlund (3)CAR 3 – 1 CGY · CGY 3% → 9% +6CGY 3% → 9%+6 pts
- P313:05Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Kirkland (3), Rasmus Andersson (6)CAR 3 – 2 CGY · CGY 1% → 12% +10CGY 1% → 12%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 64%
- ML CAR -195 / CGY +165
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- CAR: Elo 54.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- CAR -175
- CGY +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.6 – 2.9 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −11 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +28 Elo | CAR 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 58.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 4.05th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.55th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +1.53rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3255.8% | Shot share | 46.8%26th of 32 |
| 9th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 91.8%8th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.