Carolina Hurricanes at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints2
Oilers- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists1
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:53Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)3–2
- P313:29Martin Necas Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Eric Robinson (2), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4)2–2
- P30:44Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (3), Sebastian Aho (4)1–2
- P22:30Connor McDavid Goal (3) Poke, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3), Evan Bouchard (1)0–2
- P13:34Connor McDavid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:34Connor McDavid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (3)CAR 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 51% → 66% +15EDM 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P22:30Connor McDavid Goal (3) Poke, assists: Leon Draisaitl (3), Evan Bouchard (1)CAR 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 69% → 83% +14EDM 69% → 83%+14 pts
- P30:44Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (3), Sebastian Aho (4)CAR 1 – 2 EDM · CAR 10% → 25% +16CAR 10% → 25%+16 pts
- P313:29Martin Necas Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Eric Robinson (2), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (4)CAR 2 – 2 EDM · CAR 13% → 50% +36CAR 13% → 50%+36 pts
- OT4:53Sebastian Aho Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (4), Shayne Gostisbehere (1)CAR 3 – 2 EDM · CAR 50% → 100% +50CAR 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 51%
- ML CAR -105 / EDM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- EDM: Elo 52.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -104
- CAR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.2 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −3 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +19 Elo | EDM 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.031st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 4.027th of 32 |
| 16th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −2.031st of 32 |
| 1st of 3258.0% | Shot share | 56.1%4th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 85.1%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.