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Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Victory+, Sportsnet

Away

Oilers

2-4-0

1–4

at

Home

Stars

5-1-0

EDM 52%DAL 48%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN+, Victory+, Sportsnet

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored EDM favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars

Scoring summary

  • P318:01Jason Robertson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Logan Stankoven (7), Roope Hintz (4)1–4
  • P317:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2), Connor McDavid (5)1–3
  • P313:16Roope Hintz Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (6), Jason Robertson (2)0–3
  • P312:06Matt Duchene Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (4), Colin Blackwell (2)0–2
  • P219:34Matt Duchene Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P219:34Matt Duchene Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3)EDM 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 49% → 72% +24
  2. P312:06Matt Duchene Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (4), Colin Blackwell (2)EDM 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 84% → 98% +14
  3. P313:16Roope Hintz Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (6), Jason Robertson (2)EDM 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 98% → >99% +1
  4. P317:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2), Connor McDavid (5)EDM 1 – 3 DAL · EDM <1% → <1% +0
  5. P318:01Jason Robertson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Logan Stankoven (7), Roope Hintz (4)EDM 1 – 4 DAL · DAL >99% → >99% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 52%

Toss-upMiss
EDM 52%DAL 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 52%
ML EDM -120 / DAL +100
Pre-line forecast
EDM 43%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 42%
Ratings vs. market
−10.0 pts
EDM: Elo 42.1%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
EDM -109
DAL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 3.3 – 3.2 DAL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMDALWhy
Team rating15381551Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−2+6EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +55 EloDAL 57.9%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 56.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 57.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatDAL
30th of 322.2Goals scored2.822nd of 32
26th of 324.0Goals allowed1.62nd of 32
29th of 32−1.8Margin+1.26th of 32
3rd of 3256.1%Shot share47.1%26th of 32
31st of 3284.8%Save percentage94.6%2nd of 32
1st of 311–0Road vs home3–01st of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersStars
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonEDMDAL
Puck line1–42–3
Last 101–42–3
Favorite1–42–3
Underdog——
Overs–unders2–31–4
Overs–unders, last 102–31–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

EDM 5–4 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.