Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Colin BlackwellGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Colin BlackwellPoints1
Capitals- Taylor RaddyshGoals1
- Connor McMichaelAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P217:19Taylor Raddysh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P213:09Jason Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (2), Wyatt Johnston (4)2–2
- P26:15Dylan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (3), Aliaksei Protas (1)1–2
- P20:55Tom Wilson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2), Connor McMichael (2)1–1
- P112:19Colin Blackwell Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Oskar Bäck (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:19Colin Blackwell Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Oskar Bäck (1)DAL 1 – 0 WSH · DAL 58% → 73% +15DAL 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P20:55Tom Wilson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (2), Connor McMichael (2)DAL 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 26% → 43% +16WSH 26% → 43%+16 pts
- P26:15Dylan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (3), Aliaksei Protas (1)DAL 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 43% → 63% +19WSH 43% → 63%+19 pts
- P213:09Jason Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (2), Wyatt Johnston (4)DAL 2 – 2 WSH · DAL 35% → 56% +21DAL 35% → 56%+21 pts
- P217:19Taylor Raddysh Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 45% → 68% +23WSH 45% → 68%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 59%
- ML DAL -155 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- DAL -143
- WSH +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 2.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −2 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +28 Elo | DAL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.