Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Victor OlofssonGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Victor OlofssonPoints1
Capitals- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Alex OvechkinAssists2
- Alex OvechkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P27:17Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (6), Ivan Barbashev (4)2–4
- P26:13Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Batted, assists: Nic Dowd (1), John Carlson (2)1–4
- P25:16Aliaksei Protas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (3)1–3
- P23:06Tom Wilson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (2), Alex Ovechkin (2)1–2
- P117:49Victor Olofsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Mark Stone (5)1–1
- P16:02Jakub Vrana Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:02Jakub Vrana Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (1)VGK 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 46% → 61% +15WSH 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P117:49Victor Olofsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (2), Mark Stone (5)VGK 1 – 1 WSH · VGK 36% → 54% +17VGK 36% → 54%+17 pts
- P23:06Tom Wilson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (2), Alex Ovechkin (2)VGK 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 47% → 65% +18WSH 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P25:16Aliaksei Protas Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (3)VGK 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 65% → 81% +16WSH 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P26:13Jakob Chychrun Goal (1) Batted, assists: Nic Dowd (1), John Carlson (2)VGK 1 – 4 WSH · WSH 81% → 92% +10WSH 81% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 54%
- ML VGK -130 / WSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- VGK: Elo 49.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 2.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +8 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +4 Elo | WSH 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 46.5%27th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 18th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 22–1815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.