Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Troy TerryPoints1
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Keegan KolesarAssists2
- Keegan KolesarPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:09Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (2)1–3
- P35:18Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (4), Jack Eichel (6)1–2
- P111:49Troy Terry Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P16:17Brett Howden Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (3), Keegan Kolesar (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:17Brett Howden Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (3), Keegan Kolesar (1)ANA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 71% → 83% +12VGK 71% → 83%+12 pts
- P111:49Troy Terry Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneANA 1 – 1 VGK · ANA 17% → 30% +12ANA 17% → 30%+12 pts
- P35:18Tomas Hertl Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (4), Jack Eichel (6)ANA 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 62% → 85% +23VGK 62% → 85%+23 pts
- P314:09Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (2)ANA 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 91% → >99% +8VGK 91% → >99%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 72%
- ML ANA +250 / VGK -300
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 67.3%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- VGK -263
- ANA +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.6 – 3.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −9 | ANA: James Reimer: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +126 Elo | VGK 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 60.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.1% | Shot share | 50.4%16th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 26th of 3115–25 | Road vs home | 27–134th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 3–1 VGK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.