Edmonton Oilers at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Brett KulakGoals2
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Brett KulakPoints2
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Roman JosiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:24Brett Kulak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P218:29Connor McDavid Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (3), Leon Draisaitl (2)3–2
- P217:45Jonathan Marchessault Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (3), Juuse Saros (1)2–2
- P210:50Jeff Skinner Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (2)2–1
- P117:39Brett Kulak Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (2)1–1
- P111:46Filip Forsberg Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (2), Ryan O'Reilly (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:46Filip Forsberg Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (2), Ryan O'Reilly (2)EDM 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 46% → 62% +16NSH 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P117:39Brett Kulak Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (2)EDM 1 – 1 NSH · EDM 37% → 54% +17EDM 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P210:50Jeff Skinner Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (2)EDM 2 – 1 NSH · EDM 53% → 73% +20EDM 53% → 73%+20 pts
- P217:45Jonathan Marchessault Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (3), Juuse Saros (1)EDM 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 25% → 47% +22NSH 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P218:29Connor McDavid Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (3), Leon Draisaitl (2)EDM 3 – 2 NSH · EDM 53% → 75% +22EDM 53% → 75%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 54%
- ML EDM -130 / NSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- EDM: Elo 48.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -119
- NSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.4 – 3.1 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −1 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +12 Elo | NSH 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 321.8 | Goals scored | 2.030th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.5 | Goals allowed | 4.731st of 32 |
| 31st of 32−2.8 | Margin | −2.730th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.8% | Shot share | 59.0%1st of 32 |
| 31st of 3282.7% | Save percentage | 84.0%30th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.