Winnipeg Jets at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Nino NiederreiterPoints2
Kraken- Matty BeniersGoals2
- Jared McCannAssists2
- Matty BeniersPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:26Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (3), Mark Scheifele (5)4–3
- P316:38Matty Beniers Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (4), Jared McCann (7)3–3
- P311:01Jordan Eberle Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jared McCann (6), Matty Beniers (2)3–2
- P34:21Nino Niederreiter Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (6), Neal Pionk (7)3–1
- P215:05Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (4), Kyle Connor (2)2–1
- P23:56Nino Niederreiter Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Mason Appleton (4), Adam Lowry (3)1–1
- P111:27Matty Beniers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:27Matty Beniers Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 46% → 62% +16SEA 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P23:56Nino Niederreiter Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Mason Appleton (4), Adam Lowry (3)WPG 1 – 1 SEA · WPG 35% → 53% +18WPG 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P215:05Gabriel Vilardi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (4), Kyle Connor (2)WPG 2 – 1 SEA · WPG 53% → 74% +21WPG 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P316:38Matty Beniers Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (4), Jared McCann (7)WPG 3 – 3 SEA · SEA 6% → 49% +43SEA 6% → 49%+43 pts
- OT1:26Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (3), Mark Scheifele (5)WPG 4 – 3 SEA · WPG 51% → 94% +43WPG 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 54%
- ML WPG -130 / SEA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- WPG: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 2.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +7 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +25 Elo | WPG 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 52.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.5 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 32 |
| 1st of 321.7 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.8 | Margin | +0.611th of 32 |
| 12th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 51.4%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 3294.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–211th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.