Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Joel KivirantaGoals2
- Ivan IvanAssists1
- Joel KivirantaPoints2
Kraken- Ryker EvansGoals1
- Andre BurakovskyAssists1
- Jared McCannPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:55Ryker Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (1), Andre Burakovsky (5)3–2
- P219:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (12), Casey Mittelstadt (2)3–1
- P214:56Joel Kiviranta Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (11), Ivan Ivan (2)2–1
- P211:57Jared McCann Goal (4) Backhand, assists: none1–1
- P118:32Joel Kiviranta Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:32Joel Kiviranta Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (1)COL 1 – 0 SEA · COL 53% → 69% +17COL 53% → 69%+17 pts
- P211:57Jared McCann Goal (4) Backhand, assists: noneCOL 1 – 1 SEA · SEA 28% → 48% +20SEA 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P214:56Joel Kiviranta Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (11), Ivan Ivan (2)COL 2 – 1 SEA · COL 52% → 73% +21COL 52% → 73%+21 pts
- P219:52Nathan MacKinnon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (12), Casey Mittelstadt (2)COL 3 – 1 SEA · COL 75% → 90% +15COL 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P319:55Ryker Evans Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (1), Andre Burakovsky (5)COL 3 – 2 SEA · SEA 0% → 0% +0SEA 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- COL 53%
- ML COL -125 / SEA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- COL: Elo 55.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +22 | −7 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.55 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +37 Elo | COL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 3.78th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.8 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−1.3 | Margin | +0.88th of 32 |
| 5th of 3255.8% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3283.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%13th of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 1–5 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.