Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Ryan StromeGoals1
- Olen ZellwegerAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints1
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals2
- Ross ColtonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:19Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6)3–4
- P319:47Troy Terry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (1)3–3
- P311:42Ross Colton Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (5), Nathan MacKinnon (7)2–3
- P30:35Ross Colton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (1), Mikko Rantanen (4)2–2
- P20:57Casey Mittelstadt Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (1), Cale Makar (8)2–1
- P119:36Ryan Strome Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (2)2–0
- P16:05Leo Carlsson Goal (2) Poke, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:57Casey Mittelstadt Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nikolai Kovalenko (1), Cale Makar (8)ANA 2 – 1 COL · COL 32% → 49% +17COL 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P30:35Ross Colton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (1), Mikko Rantanen (4)ANA 2 – 2 COL · COL 37% → 62% +25COL 37% → 62%+25 pts
- P311:42Ross Colton Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (5), Nathan MacKinnon (7)ANA 2 – 3 COL · COL 58% → 88% +30COL 58% → 88%+30 pts
- P319:47Troy Terry Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (1)ANA 3 – 3 COL · ANA <1% → 49% +49ANA <1% → 49%+49 pts
- OT4:19Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6)ANA 3 – 4 COL · COL 52% → >99% +48COL 52% → >99%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 70%
- ML ANA +220 / COL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- COL: Elo 63.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -234
- ANA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −11 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +96 Elo | COL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 63.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 6.332nd of 32 |
| 15th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −3.032nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.6% | Shot share | 53.1%8th of 32 |
| 9th of 3292.4% | Save percentage | 79.6%32nd of 32 |
| 11th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 0–326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.