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Utah Hockey Club at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, Victory+, KCOP, Utah 16

Away

Utah HC

3-1-1

4–5

at

Home

Ducks

2-1-0

UTAH 60%ANA 40%

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Honda Center · ESPN+, Victory+, KCOP, Utah 16

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.

ANA favored UTAH favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTANA50%UTAH

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • OT0:54Leo Carlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–5
  • P314:55Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock McGinn (2), Leo Carlsson (1)4–4
  • P310:50Clayton Keller Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nick Schmaltz (6)4–3
  • P35:21Michael Kesselring Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (1), Josh Doan (1)3–3
  • P216:52Pavel Mintyukov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (1), Mason McTavish (2)2–3
  • P28:06Robby Fabbri Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Trevor Zegras (1), Mason McTavish (1)2–2
  • P113:25Barrett Hayton Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (5), Dylan Guenther (1)2–1
  • P18:54Jack McBain Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (4), Michael Kesselring (2)1–1
  • P14:40Troy Terry Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (1), Frank Vatrano (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P216:52Pavel Mintyukov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (1), Mason McTavish (2)UTAH 2 – 3 ANA · ANA 44% → 67% +23
  2. P35:21Michael Kesselring Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack McBain (1), Josh Doan (1)UTAH 3 – 3 ANA · UTAH 27% → 55% +28
  3. P310:50Clayton Keller Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nick Schmaltz (6)UTAH 4 – 3 ANA · UTAH 54% → 85% +31
  4. P314:55Pavel Mintyukov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock McGinn (2), Leo Carlsson (1)UTAH 4 – 4 ANA · ANA 9% → 47% +38
  5. OT0:54Leo Carlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneUTAH 4 – 5 ANA · ANA 47% → 91% +43

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Utah HC 60%

LeanMiss
UTAH 60%ANA 40%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
UTAH 60%
ML UTAH -165 / ANA +140
Pre-line forecast
UTAH 45%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
UTAH 52%
Ratings vs. market
−8.0 pts
UTAH: Elo 51.9%, market 59.9%
Fair odds
UTAH -149
ANA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
UTAH 3.5 – 3.0 ANA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorUTAHANAWhy
Team rating15041438Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−9+9UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsUTAH +13 EloUTAH 51.9%
Market-implied ratingsANA 56.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastANA 55.1%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastUTAH 59.9%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Utah Hockey Club and Anaheim Ducks compared, with each team's league rank
UTAHStatANA
4th of 324.0Goals scored1.532nd of 32
18th of 323.5Goals allowed1.54th of 32
9th of 32+0.5Margin0.013th of 32
29th of 3245.4%Shot share46.1%27th of 32
21st of 3288.2%Save percentage95.2%4th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Utah HCDucks
1400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.