Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Hampus LindholmGoals1
- Hampus LindholmAssists1
- Hampus LindholmPoints2
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals1
- Ross ColtonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:59John Beecher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P34:52Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (7), Nathan MacKinnon (6)4–3
- P211:15Cale Makar Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (3), Nathan MacKinnon (5)4–2
- P29:22Hampus Lindholm Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P29:09David Pastrnak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (2), Brad Marchand (3)3–1
- P117:09Charlie Coyle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (3)2–1
- P115:07Ross Colton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (2), Cale Makar (6)1–1
- P113:46Cole Koepke Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (2), Nikita Zadorov (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:46Cole Koepke Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Andrew Peeke (2), Nikita Zadorov (3)BOS 1 – 0 COL · BOS 45% → 61% +16BOS 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P115:07Ross Colton Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (2), Cale Makar (6)BOS 1 – 1 COL · COL 39% → 55% +17COL 39% → 55%+17 pts
- P117:09Charlie Coyle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (3)BOS 2 – 1 COL · BOS 45% → 62% +17BOS 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P29:09David Pastrnak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (2), Brad Marchand (3)BOS 3 – 1 COL · BOS 65% → 82% +16BOS 65% → 82%+16 pts
- P34:52Mikko Rantanen Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (7), Nathan MacKinnon (6)BOS 4 – 3 COL · COL 8% → 26% +17COL 8% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 56%
- ML BOS +120 / COL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- COL: Elo 57.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −26 | −11 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.64 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +49 Elo | COL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.8 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 6.732nd of 32 |
| 12th of 320.0 | Margin | −3.332nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.0% | Shot share | 54.2%5th of 32 |
| 25th of 3287.4% | Save percentage | 78.2%32nd of 32 |
| 20th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 0–221st of 28 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.