Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Ross ColtonGoals2
- Samuel GirardAssists1
- Ross ColtonPoints2
Sharks- William EklundGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- William EklundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:23Cale Makar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (9), Samuel Girard (3)4–1
- P39:57Joel Kiviranta Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Josh Manson (3), John Ludvig (1)3–1
- P118:25William Eklund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (6), Tyler Toffoli (3)2–1
- P116:37Ross Colton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (7), Cale Makar (10)2–0
- P16:23Ross Colton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (8), Cale Makar (9)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:23Ross Colton Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (8), Cale Makar (9)COL 1 – 0 SJ · COL 70% → 82% +12COL 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P116:37Ross Colton Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (7), Cale Makar (10)COL 2 – 0 SJ · COL 81% → 91% +9COL 81% → 91%+9 pts
- P118:25William Eklund Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (6), Tyler Toffoli (3)COL 2 – 1 SJ · SJ 9% → 19% +9SJ 9% → 19%+9 pts
- P39:57Joel Kiviranta Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Josh Manson (3), John Ludvig (1)COL 3 – 1 SJ · COL 87% → 98% +11COL 87% → 98%+11 pts
- P318:23Cale Makar Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (9), Samuel Girard (3)COL 4 – 1 SJ · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 71%
- ML COL -280 / SJ +230
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- COL: Elo 64.0%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -243
- SJ +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 2.6 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1397 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +20 | +9 | COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +100 Elo | COL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.230th of 32 |
| 32nd of 325.6 | Goals allowed | 4.429th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−2.2 | Margin | −2.231st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3257.4% | Shot share | 43.2%31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 3280.3% | Save percentage | 88.2%24th of 32 |
| 27th of 320–1 | Road vs home | 0–228th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 0–5 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–0 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–0 SJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.