Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Neal PionkGoals2
- Gabriel VilardiAssists1
- Neal PionkPoints2
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Moritz SeiderAssists2
- Moritz SeiderPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:25Colin Miller Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (6)6–2
- P37:19Neal Pionk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (5)5–2
- P30:10Nino Niederreiter Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none4–2
- P217:40Alex DeBrincat Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Lucas Raymond (9), Moritz Seider (6)3–2
- P28:13Dylan Larkin Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (8), Moritz Seider (5)3–1
- P115:44Kyle Connor Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (5)3–0
- P14:02Neal Pionk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (7), Kyle Connor (8)2–0
- P12:48Gabriel Vilardi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (7), Logan Stanley (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:48Gabriel Vilardi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (7), Logan Stanley (2)WPG 1 – 0 DET · WPG 60% → 74% +13WPG 60% → 74%+13 pts
- P14:02Neal Pionk Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (7), Kyle Connor (8)WPG 2 – 0 DET · WPG 74% → 85% +11WPG 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P115:44Kyle Connor Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (5)WPG 3 – 0 DET · WPG 86% → 93% +7WPG 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P217:40Alex DeBrincat Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Lucas Raymond (9), Moritz Seider (6)WPG 3 – 2 DET · DET 9% → 22% +14DET 9% → 22%+14 pts
- P30:10Nino Niederreiter Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 4 – 2 DET · WPG 79% → 92% +14WPG 79% → 92%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 61%
- ML WPG -170 / DET +145
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 51.5%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +10 Elo | WPG 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 324.4 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+2.0 | Margin | −0.318th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 40.4%32nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 91.7%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 2–320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.