Detroit Red Wings at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NYI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- Vladimir TarasenkoAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
IslandersScoring summary
- P18:54Patrick Kane Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (1), J.T. Compher (2)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:54Patrick Kane Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (1), J.T. Compher (2)DET 1 – 0 NYI · DET 40% → 56% +16DET 40% → 56%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 61%
- ML DET +145 / NYI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- NYI: Elo 52.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- NYI -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +18 Elo | NYI 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 62.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 32 |
| 30th of 3243.8% | Shot share | 54.4%6th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.