Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Patrick KaneAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Rangers- Alexis LafreniereGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists3
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:38Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (5), Jacob Trouba (4)1–4
- P34:51Reilly Smith Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (2)1–3
- P217:05Chris Kreider Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (1), Artemi Panarin (4)1–2
- P119:58Dylan Larkin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Holl (1), Patrick Kane (1)1–1
- P111:45Alexis Lafrenière Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (3), Zac Jones (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:45Alexis Lafrenière Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (3), Zac Jones (1)DET 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 66% → 80% +13NYR 66% → 80%+13 pts
- P119:58Dylan Larkin Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Holl (1), Patrick Kane (1)DET 1 – 1 NYR · DET 20% → 35% +15DET 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P217:05Chris Kreider Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mika Zibanejad (1), Artemi Panarin (4)DET 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 61% → 81% +20NYR 61% → 81%+20 pts
- P34:51Reilly Smith Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (2)DET 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 83% → 95% +12NYR 83% → 95%+12 pts
- P318:38Mika Zibanejad Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (5), Jacob Trouba (4)DET 1 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 68%
- ML DET +200 / NYR -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- NYR: Elo 61.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NYR -212
- DET +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.7 – 3.8 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +78 Elo | NYR 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 15th of 3118–21 | Road vs home | 29–112nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–3 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.