Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Andrew CoppGoals2
- Marco KasperAssists1
- Andrew CoppPoints2
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:18Andrew Copp Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (1)5–2
- P318:43Simon Edvinsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P33:29Andrew Copp Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Joe Veleno (1), Christian Fischer (1)3–2
- P30:32Steven Stamkos Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (3), Jonathan Marchessault (3)2–2
- P23:17Dylan Larkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (2), Patrick Kane (2)2–1
- P113:26Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (1), Marco Kasper (1)1–1
- P18:48Luke Schenn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (3), Gustav Nyquist (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:48Luke Schenn Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (3), Gustav Nyquist (1)DET 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 63% → 77% +14NSH 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P113:26Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonatan Berggren (1), Marco Kasper (1)DET 1 – 1 NSH · DET 23% → 37% +14DET 23% → 37%+14 pts
- P23:17Dylan Larkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (2), Patrick Kane (2)DET 2 – 1 NSH · DET 39% → 57% +18DET 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P30:32Steven Stamkos Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (3), Jonathan Marchessault (3)DET 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 33% → 58% +25NSH 33% → 58%+25 pts
- P33:29Andrew Copp Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Joe Veleno (1), Christian Fischer (1)DET 3 – 2 NSH · DET 42% → 69% +27DET 42% → 69%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 64%
- ML DET +170 / NSH -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 56.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -180
- DET +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.8 – 3.7 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −2 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +43 Elo | NSH 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 60.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.3 | Goals scored | 2.032nd of 32 |
| 21st of 323.8 | Goals allowed | 4.530th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−1.5 | Margin | −2.532nd of 32 |
| 28th of 3245.9% | Shot share | 55.0%3rd of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 86.4%28th of 32 |
| 24th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.