New York Rangers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals3
- Artemi PanarinAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints4
Red Wings- J.T. CompherGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- J.T. CompherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:41J.T. Compher Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (2), Erik Gustafsson (2)5–2
- P212:20Victor Mancini Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kaapo Kakko (2), Filip Chytil (1)5–1
- P211:42Artemi Panarin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (6), Vincent Trocheck (4)4–1
- P28:46Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (6), Adam Fox (5)3–1
- P21:27Moritz Seider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (1), Lucas Raymond (4)2–1
- P115:39Artemi Panarin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (4), Vincent Trocheck (3)2–0
- P18:30Artemi Panarin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Alexis Lafrenière (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:30Artemi Panarin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (2), Alexis Lafrenière (3)NYR 1 – 0 DET · NYR 57% → 71% +15NYR 57% → 71%+15 pts
- P115:39Artemi Panarin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (4), Vincent Trocheck (3)NYR 2 – 0 DET · NYR 72% → 84% +12NYR 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P21:27Moritz Seider Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (1), Lucas Raymond (4)NYR 2 – 1 DET · DET 15% → 27% +13DET 15% → 27%+13 pts
- P28:46Vincent Trocheck Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (6), Adam Fox (5)NYR 3 – 1 DET · NYR 74% → 87% +14NYR 74% → 87%+14 pts
- P211:42Artemi Panarin Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (6), Vincent Trocheck (4)NYR 4 – 1 DET · NYR 88% → 96% +7NYR 88% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYR 57%
- ML NYR -145 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- NYR: Elo 51.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYR -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.5 – 3.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +10 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +7 Elo | NYR 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYR 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 325.0 | Goals scored | 2.328th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.315th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+2.7 | Margin | −1.025th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.4% | Shot share | 45.9%28th of 32 |
| 9th of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 90.7%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 291–0 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 4–0 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.