Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- Juraj SlafkovskyAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Islanders- Anders LeeGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Noah DobsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Noah Dobson Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Emil Heineman Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Simon Holmstrom Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- SO0:00Oliver Kapanen Goal Snap Shot2–3
- SO0:00Kyle Palmieri Goal Wrist Shot2–3
- P317:50Cole Caufield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (5), Nick Suzuki (5)3–3
- P315:24Anders Lee Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1), Adam Pelech (3)2–3
- P20:59Logan Mailloux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (2), Josh Anderson (1)2–2
- P119:56Cole Caufield Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (4), Juraj Slafkovsky (4)1–2
- P116:58Kyle Palmieri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (4), Maxim Tsyplakov (2)0–2
- P114:32Bo Horvat Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (2), Noah Dobson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:32Bo Horvat Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (2), Noah Dobson (3)MTL 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 65% → 79% +14NYI 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P119:56Cole Caufield Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (4), Juraj Slafkovsky (4)MTL 1 – 2 NYI · MTL 10% → 21% +10MTL 10% → 21%+10 pts
- P20:59Logan Mailloux Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (2), Josh Anderson (1)MTL 2 – 2 NYI · MTL 21% → 36% +15MTL 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P315:24Anders Lee Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1), Adam Pelech (3)MTL 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 55% → 93% +38NYI 55% → 93%+38 pts
- P317:50Cole Caufield Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (5), Nick Suzuki (5)MTL 3 – 3 NYI · MTL 2% → 47% +44MTL 2% → 47%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 67%
- ML MTL +195 / NYI -230
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- NYI: Elo 61.3%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- NYI -206
- MTL +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.7 – 3.8 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +2 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +80 Elo | NYI 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 64.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3244.6% | Shot share | 53.0%9th of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.4%11th of 32 |
| 25th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 0–127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.