Los Angeles Kings at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Mikey AndersonGoals1
- Vladislav GavrikovAssists2
- Vladislav GavrikovPoints2
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:12Adrian Kempe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (2), Anze Kopitar (4)4–1
- P317:02Andreas Englund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (3)3–1
- P21:37Alex Laferriere Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (2), Alex Turcotte (2)2–1
- P118:20Mikey Anderson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (1), Adrian Kempe (3)1–1
- P17:02Justin Barron Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Cole Caufield (1), Nick Suzuki (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:02Justin Barron Goal (1) Wrap-around, assists: Cole Caufield (1), Nick Suzuki (4)LA 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 45% → 60% +15MTL 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P118:20Mikey Anderson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (1), Adrian Kempe (3)LA 1 – 1 MTL · LA 37% → 54% +17LA 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P21:37Alex Laferriere Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (2), Alex Turcotte (2)LA 2 – 1 MTL · LA 54% → 71% +17LA 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P317:02Andreas Englund Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (3)LA 3 – 1 MTL · LA 95% → >99% +5LA 95% → >99%+5 pts
- P319:12Adrian Kempe Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (2), Anze Kopitar (4)LA 4 – 1 MTL · LA >99% → 100% +0LA >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- LA 55%
- ML LA -135 / MTL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- LA: Elo 47.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LA -124
- MTL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 2.6 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | LA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +2 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +20 Elo | MTL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 28th of 324.3 | Goals allowed | 3.314th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−1.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.1% | Shot share | 44.3%32nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3286.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%13th of 32 |
| 19th of 291–3 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 2–0 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.