Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex TurcotteGoals1
- Brandt ClarkeAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Maple Leafs- Bobby McMannGoals2
- Jake McCabeAssists2
- Bobby McMannPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:16John Tavares Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Mitch Marner (4), Auston Matthews (2)2–6
- P39:03Kevin Fiala Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brandt Clarke (4), Trevor Lewis (1)2–5
- P32:42Alex Turcotte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Lee (1)1–5
- P218:31William Nylander Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1), Mitch Marner (3)0–5
- P27:56Morgan Rielly Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (3), Max Domi (5)0–4
- P117:12Bobby McMann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3)0–3
- P18:49Auston Matthews Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2)0–2
- P16:54Bobby McMann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (4), Jake McCabe (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:54Bobby McMann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (4), Jake McCabe (2)LA 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 63% → 76% +13TOR 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P18:49Auston Matthews Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2)LA 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 77% → 87% +10TOR 77% → 87%+10 pts
- P117:12Bobby McMann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (1), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3)LA 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 88% → 94% +7TOR 88% → 94%+7 pts
- P27:56Morgan Rielly Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (3), Max Domi (5)LA 0 – 4 TOR · TOR 96% → 99% +3TOR 96% → 99%+3 pts
- P218:31William Nylander Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1), Mitch Marner (3)LA 0 – 5 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML LA +165 / TOR -200
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -177
- LA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +28 | LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.70 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +68 Elo | TOR 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.7 | Goals scored | 2.723rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.7 | Goals allowed | 1.75th of 32 |
| 12th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.08th of 32 |
| 29th of 3245.4% | Shot share | 58.5%2nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 93.2%5th of 32 |
| 17th of 291–2 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 28 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.