Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists3
- Anze KopitarPoints3
Senators- Zack MacEwenGoals2
- Tim StutzleAssists3
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:56Josh Norris Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (2), Tim Stützle (3)7–8
- P314:26Tanner Jeannot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none7–7
- P39:18Josh Norris Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Brady Tkachuk (5)6–7
- P35:25Claude Giroux Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Shane Pinto (1), Thomas Chabot (1)6–6
- P33:38Alex Laferriere Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none6–5
- P217:52Zack MacEwen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (1)5–5
- P216:25Kevin Fiala Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (3), Anze Kopitar (3)5–4
- P215:32Thomas Chabot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (2), Brady Tkachuk (4)4–4
- P215:13Drake Batherson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (2), Josh Norris (2)4–3
- P211:16Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Kyle Burroughs (1), Adrian Kempe (2)4–2
- P210:26Zack MacEwen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Jensen (2)3–2
- P25:31Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (2), Anze Kopitar (2)3–1
- P110:25Jake Sanderson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (3), Tim Stützle (1)2–1
- P19:07Trevor Lewis Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Alex Turcotte (1), Mikey Anderson (1)2–0
- P18:12Kevin Fiala Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (1), Brandt Clarke (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:38Alex Laferriere Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 6 – 5 OTT · LA 49% → 75% +26LA 49% → 75%+26 pts
- P35:25Claude Giroux Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Shane Pinto (1), Thomas Chabot (1)LA 6 – 6 OTT · OTT 23% → 51% +27OTT 23% → 51%+27 pts
- P39:18Josh Norris Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (1), Brady Tkachuk (5)LA 6 – 7 OTT · OTT 50% → 81% +30OTT 50% → 81%+30 pts
- P314:26Tanner Jeannot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 7 – 7 OTT · LA 11% → 50% +38LA 11% → 50%+38 pts
- OT0:56Josh Norris Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (2), Tim Stützle (3)LA 7 – 8 OTT · OTT 50% → 92% +42OTT 50% → 92%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Senators 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- OTT 51%
- ML LA -105 / OTT -115
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- OTT: Elo 55.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- OTT -104
- LA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.7 – 2.8 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +3 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +37 Elo | OTT 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OTT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.323rd of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 51.9%9th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 88.8%31st of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 2–0 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.