Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals3
- Max PaciorettyAssists3
- John TavaresPoints3
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:35John Tavares Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Chris Tanev (2)6–4
- P316:13Gabriel Vilardi Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Kyle Connor (6), Nikolaj Ehlers (7)5–4
- P37:36Mark Scheifele Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (5), Josh Morrissey (10)5–3
- P217:53John Tavares Goal (4) Batted, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (5), William Nylander (4)5–2
- P211:25Kyle Connor Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (9), Gabriel Vilardi (4)4–2
- P26:19Kyle Connor Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (6), Josh Morrissey (8)4–1
- P23:25Morgan Rielly Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (3), Max Pacioretty (3)4–0
- P20:56Matthew Knies Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (4), Mitch Marner (10)3–0
- P117:47William Nylander Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (2)2–0
- P111:56John Tavares Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (1), Jake McCabe (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:56John Tavares Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (1), Jake McCabe (4)TOR 1 – 0 WPG · TOR 52% → 68% +16TOR 52% → 68%+16 pts
- P117:47William Nylander Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (2)TOR 2 – 0 WPG · TOR 68% → 82% +14TOR 68% → 82%+14 pts
- P20:56Matthew Knies Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (4), Mitch Marner (10)TOR 3 – 0 WPG · TOR 83% → 92% +9TOR 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P211:25Kyle Connor Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (9), Gabriel Vilardi (4)TOR 4 – 2 WPG · WPG 5% → 14% +8WPG 5% → 14%+8 pts
- P217:53John Tavares Goal (4) Batted, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (5), William Nylander (4)TOR 5 – 2 WPG · TOR 89% → 97% +8TOR 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / WPG +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 41.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- WPG +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 2.7 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +3 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +63 Elo | WPG 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 4.52nd of 32 |
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.02nd of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +2.51st of 32 |
| 11th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 52.1%10th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.6% | Save percentage | 93.2%3rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.