St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dylan HollowayGoals2
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Dylan HollowayPoints2
Maple Leafs- Oliver Ekman-LarssonGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:42Dylan Holloway Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (4)5–1
- P33:45Jake Neighbours Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (2)4–1
- P27:58Alexandre Texier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (7), Pavel Buchnevich (3)3–1
- P26:20Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (2), John Tavares (3)2–1
- P110:31Dylan Holloway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (1)2–0
- P14:07Philip Broberg Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (6), Pavel Buchnevich (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:07Philip Broberg Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (6), Pavel Buchnevich (2)STL 1 – 0 TOR · STL 33% → 47% +15STL 33% → 47%+15 pts
- P110:31Dylan Holloway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Saad (1)STL 2 – 0 TOR · STL 49% → 65% +16STL 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P26:20Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (2), John Tavares (3)STL 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 27% → 44% +18TOR 27% → 44%+18 pts
- P27:58Alexandre Texier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Kyrou (7), Pavel Buchnevich (3)STL 3 – 1 TOR · STL 56% → 74% +18STL 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P33:45Jake Neighbours Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (2)STL 4 – 1 TOR · STL 88% → 97% +9STL 88% → 97%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 68%
- ML STL +200 / TOR -240
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -212
- STL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −10 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.79th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.413th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 51.5%9th of 32 |
| 10th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 91.7%8th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 0–2 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.