New York Rangers at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- K'Andre MillerAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:46Artemi Panarin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (3), K'Andre Miller (1)4–1
- P319:00Chris Kreider Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (4), Reilly Smith (3)3–1
- P33:40Auston Matthews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4), Matthew Knies (1)2–1
- P29:08Chris Kreider Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (3), Reilly Smith (2)2–0
- P111:44Alexis Lafrenière Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (5), Victor Mancini (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:44Alexis Lafrenière Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (5), Victor Mancini (1)NYR 1 – 0 TOR · NYR 47% → 63% +16NYR 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P29:08Chris Kreider Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (3), Reilly Smith (2)NYR 2 – 0 TOR · NYR 67% → 83% +16NYR 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P33:40Auston Matthews Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (4), Matthew Knies (1)NYR 2 – 1 TOR · TOR 9% → 26% +17TOR 9% → 26%+17 pts
- P319:00Chris Kreider Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (4), Reilly Smith (3)NYR 3 – 1 TOR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P319:46Artemi Panarin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (3), K'Andre Miller (1)NYR 4 – 1 TOR · NYR 100% → 100% +0NYR 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML NYR +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- NYR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.2 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +26 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.64 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 325.0 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 1.83rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+2.8 | Margin | +1.84th of 32 |
| 8th of 3253.5% | Shot share | 54.7%4th of 32 |
| 7th of 3292.5% | Save percentage | 93.5%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 312–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.