Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Nick RobertsonPoints1
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals2
- Justin DanforthAssists2
- Justin DanforthPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:03Nicholas Robertson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: John Tavares (2), Simon Benoit (1)2–6
- P311:58Kirill Marchenko Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (4), Cole Sillinger (3)1–6
- P218:59Matthew Knies Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–5
- P211:36Mathieu Olivier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Aston-Reese (1), Justin Danforth (2)0–5
- P25:35Sean Monahan Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (5), Zach Werenski (4)0–4
- P112:42Mathieu Olivier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (1), Jake Christiansen (4)0–3
- P16:21Justin Danforth Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (3)0–2
- P15:29James van Riemsdyk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ivan Provorov (2), Kevin Labanc (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:29James van Riemsdyk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ivan Provorov (2), Kevin Labanc (3)TOR 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 36% → 51% +15CBJ 36% → 51%+15 pts
- P16:21Justin Danforth Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (3)TOR 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 66% +15CBJ 52% → 66%+15 pts
- P112:42Mathieu Olivier Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (1), Jake Christiansen (4)TOR 0 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 69% → 82% +13CBJ 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P25:35Sean Monahan Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (5), Zach Werenski (4)TOR 0 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 88% → 95% +7CBJ 88% → 95%+7 pts
- P211:36Mathieu Olivier Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Zachary Aston-Reese (1), Justin Danforth (2)TOR 0 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 97% → >99% +2CBJ 97% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML TOR -200 / CBJ +170
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -180
- CBJ +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 2.8 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +1 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +5 Elo | CBJ 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.69th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.623rd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+1.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 32 |
| 7th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 51.3%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 3293.5% | Save percentage | 86.8%28th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 4–2 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.