Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nick PaulPoints1
Maple Leafs- Max PaciorettyGoals1
- Max DomiAssists1
- Max PaciorettyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:53Brayden Point Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (3), Victor Hedman (6)2–5
- P214:02Matthew Knies Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (6)1–5
- P29:31Max Pacioretty Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (1), Conor Timmins (2)1–4
- P27:33William Nylander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (1)1–3
- P21:56Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (5), William Nylander (2)1–2
- P115:57Nicholas Paul Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (5), Mitchell Chaffee (2)1–1
- P13:57William Nylander Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:57William Nylander Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Max Domi (6)TB 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 55% → 69% +14TOR 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P115:57Nicholas Paul Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (5), Mitchell Chaffee (2)TB 1 – 1 TOR · TB 29% → 45% +16TB 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P21:56Auston Matthews Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (5), William Nylander (2)TB 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 54% → 71% +17TOR 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P27:33William Nylander Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (1)TB 1 – 3 TOR · TOR 72% → 86% +14TOR 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P29:31Max Pacioretty Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (1), Conor Timmins (2)TB 1 – 4 TOR · TOR 87% → 95% +8TOR 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TB +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- TB +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.1 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +20 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.51 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +50 Elo | TOR 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 2.24th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+1.5 | Margin | +0.88th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 54.7%5th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 93.3%5th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.