Vancouver Canucks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nick PaulAssists2
- Nick PaulPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:14Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (3), Anthony Cirelli (1)1–4
- P34:14Conor Garland Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (1), Jake DeBrusk (2)1–3
- P30:39Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (1), Nicholas Paul (2)0–3
- P27:43Brayden Point Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (3), Ryan McDonagh (1)0–2
- P13:55Nikita Kucherov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (1), Brayden Point (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:55Nikita Kucherov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (1), Brayden Point (1)VAN 0 – 1 TB · TB 54% → 68% +14TB 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P27:43Brayden Point Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (3), Ryan McDonagh (1)VAN 0 – 2 TB · TB 72% → 86% +14TB 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P30:39Anthony Cirelli Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Brandon Hagel (1), Nicholas Paul (2)VAN 0 – 3 TB · TB 91% → 98% +7TB 91% → 98%+7 pts
- P34:14Conor Garland Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (1), Jake DeBrusk (2)VAN 1 – 3 TB · VAN 1% → 7% +6VAN 1% → 7%+6 pts
- P318:14Brandon Hagel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (3), Anthony Cirelli (1)VAN 1 – 4 TB · TB >99% → >99% +0TB >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML VAN +110 / TB -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- TB: Elo 56.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- VAN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.1 – 3.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +1 | VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 9th of 3122–18 | Road vs home | 24–1611th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–1 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.