Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Senators- Drake BathersonGoals2
- Claude GirouxAssists2
- Drake BathersonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P38:11Mitchell Chaffee Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Nick Perbix (1), Anthony Cirelli (3)4–5
- P36:17Noah Gregor Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Shane Pinto (2), Jake Sanderson (6)3–5
- P218:56Brady Tkachuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jake Sanderson (5), Tim Stützle (4)3–4
- P218:13Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (2), Nikita Kucherov (2)3–3
- P213:20Drake Batherson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P210:39Nicholas Paul Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (2), Brandon Hagel (2)2–2
- P21:59Nikita Kucherov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (2), Erik Cernak (2)1–2
- P113:21Josh Norris Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (3), Drake Batherson (3)0–2
- P11:50Drake Batherson Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (2), Jake Sanderson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:39Nicholas Paul Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (2), Brandon Hagel (2)TB 2 – 2 OTT · TB 35% → 55% +20TB 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P213:20Drake Batherson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 2 – 3 OTT · OTT 45% → 67% +21OTT 45% → 67%+21 pts
- P218:13Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (2), Nikita Kucherov (2)TB 3 – 3 OTT · TB 31% → 54% +23TB 31% → 54%+23 pts
- P218:56Brady Tkachuk Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jake Sanderson (5), Tim Stützle (4)TB 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 46% → 69% +24OTT 46% → 69%+24 pts
- P36:17Noah Gregor Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Shane Pinto (2), Jake Sanderson (6)TB 3 – 5 OTT · OTT 75% → 93% +17OTT 75% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -145 / OTT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- TB: Elo 51.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- OTT +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 3.0 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +12 Elo | TB 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321.7 | Goals allowed | 3.821st of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+2.3 | Margin | −0.522nd of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 51.8%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 3293.2% | Save percentage | 87.4%25th of 32 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–3 OTT in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.