Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals1
- Brayden McNabbPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals2
- JJ MoserAssists2
- JJ MoserPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:05Nikita Kucherov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (4), Janis Moser (2)3–4
- P317:38Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Chaffee (1), Janis Moser (1)3–3
- P21:59Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (6)3–2
- P119:47Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (4)2–2
- P115:20Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (5), Jack Eichel (8)2–1
- P110:21Janis Moser Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cameron Atkinson (1), Emil Lilleberg (1)1–1
- P15:26Brayden McNabb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (7), Jack Eichel (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:20Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (5), Jack Eichel (8)VGK 2 – 1 TB · VGK 43% → 60% +17VGK 43% → 60%+17 pts
- P119:47Nikita Kucherov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (4)VGK 2 – 2 TB · TB 39% → 57% +18TB 39% → 57%+18 pts
- P21:59Ivan Barbashev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (6)VGK 3 – 2 TB · VGK 44% → 62% +18VGK 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P317:38Brandon Hagel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Chaffee (1), Janis Moser (1)VGK 3 – 3 TB · TB 4% → 52% +48TB 4% → 52%+48 pts
- P319:05Nikita Kucherov Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (4), Janis Moser (2)VGK 3 – 4 TB · TB 51% → >99% +49TB 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML VGK +130 / TB -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TB: Elo 57.0%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -138
- VGK +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +49 Elo | TB 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 18th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 24–1611th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 0–2 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.