New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nathan BastianGoals1
- Brenden DillonAssists1
- Nathan BastianPoints1
Senators- Claude GirouxAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:55Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Claude Giroux (1), Jake Sanderson (3)3–1
- P312:39Paul Cotter Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (1), Brenden Dillon (2)3–0
- P26:26Nathan Bastian Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P22:39Erik Haula Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (4), Timo Meier (2)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:39Erik Haula Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (4), Timo Meier (2)NJ 1 – 0 OTT · NJ 55% → 72% +17NJ 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P26:26Nathan Bastian Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneNJ 2 – 0 OTT · NJ 73% → 86% +14NJ 73% → 86%+14 pts
- P312:39Paul Cotter Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Dougie Hamilton (1), Brenden Dillon (2)NJ 3 – 0 OTT · NJ 98% → >99% +2NJ 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P318:55Brady Tkachuk Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Claude Giroux (1), Jake Sanderson (3)NJ 3 – 1 OTT · OTT <1% → <1% +0OTT <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 56%
- ML NJ -140 / OTT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- NJ: Elo 48.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -128
- OTT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.4 – 3.1 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −3 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +13 Elo | OTT 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 4.04th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 4.025th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+1.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 10th of 3252.9% | Shot share | 53.6%5th of 32 |
| 8th of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 85.7%29th of 32 |
| 9th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 2–1 OTT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.