Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

Final/OTESPN+, NHL Net, NESN

Away

Maple Leafs

4-4-1

3–4

at

Home

Bruins

4-4-1

TOR 52%BOS 48%

You didn't pick this one.

TD Garden · ESPN+, NHL Net, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored TOR favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTBOS50%TOR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • OT2:26Brad Marchand Goal (1) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (2)3–4
  • P318:43Auston Matthews Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (9), John Tavares (4)3–3
  • P213:14Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (4), Cole Koepke (4)2–3
  • P212:38Justin Brazeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (2), Matthew Poitras (3)2–2
  • P27:44Morgan Rielly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (8), Chris Tanev (1)2–1
  • P22:57David Pastrnak Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (5), Pavel Zacha (2)1–1
  • P20:35Matthew Knies Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (3), Mitch Marner (7)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P27:44Morgan Rielly Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (8), Chris Tanev (1)TOR 2 – 1 BOS · TOR 52% → 70% +19
  2. P212:38Justin Brazeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (2), Matthew Poitras (3)TOR 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 28% → 49% +20
  3. P213:14Mark Kastelic Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (4), Cole Koepke (4)TOR 2 – 3 BOS · BOS 49% → 69% +21
  4. P318:43Auston Matthews Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (9), John Tavares (4)TOR 3 – 3 BOS · TOR <1% → 50% +50
  5. OT2:26Brad Marchand Goal (1) Backhand, assists: David Pastrnak (2)TOR 3 – 4 BOS · BOS 50% → 96% +46

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Maple Leafs 52%

Toss-upMiss
TOR 52%BOS 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
TOR 52%
ML TOR -120 / BOS +100
Pre-line forecast
TOR 47%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 47%
Ratings vs. market
−4.8 pts
TOR: Elo 47.4%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
TOR -109
BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 2.8 – 2.7 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORBOSWhy
Team rating15131516Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+200TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.50 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsBOS +18 EloBOS 52.6%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 52.9%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 52.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastTOR 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatBOS
22nd of 322.9Goals scored2.922nd of 32
10th of 323.0Goals allowed3.627th of 32
19th of 32−0.1Margin−0.824th of 32
8th of 3252.7%Shot share46.6%26th of 32
10th of 3290.9%Save percentage89.1%20th of 32
22nd of 321–2Road vs home2–212th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Maple LeafsBruins
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonTORBOS
Puck line4–42–6
Last 104–42–6
Favorite3–41–4
Underdog1–01–2
Overs–unders3–55–3
Overs–unders, last 103–55–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

TOR 3–8 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.