Dallas Stars at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals1
- Tyler SeguinAssists2
- Matt DuchenePoints3
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Matthew PoitrasAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:58Roope Hintz Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (3)5–2
- P210:41Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Trent Frederic (1), Morgan Geekie (1)4–2
- P28:59Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (6), Matt Duchene (5)4–1
- P24:57Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Mason Marchment (5)3–1
- P20:31Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (2), Miro Heiskanen (1)2–1
- P116:20Matt Duchene Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (2), Thomas Harley (3)1–1
- P111:57David Pastrnak Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:57David Pastrnak Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Poitras (2)DAL 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 53% → 68% +16BOS 53% → 68%+16 pts
- P116:20Matt Duchene Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (2), Thomas Harley (3)DAL 1 – 1 BOS · DAL 31% → 47% +16DAL 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P20:31Jason Robertson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (2), Miro Heiskanen (1)DAL 2 – 1 BOS · DAL 47% → 65% +18DAL 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P24:57Logan Stankoven Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Mason Marchment (5)DAL 3 – 1 BOS · DAL 66% → 81% +15DAL 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P28:59Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (6), Matt Duchene (5)DAL 4 – 1 BOS · DAL 83% → 93% +10DAL 83% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 53%
- ML DAL +105 / BOS -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -114
- DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.7 – 2.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +3 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321.9 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3247.7% | Shot share | 46.7%28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3294.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%17th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.