Boston Bruins at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Roman JosiAssists2
- Ryan O'ReillyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:56Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–4
- P312:47Gustav Nyquist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (4), Roman Josi (5)0–3
- P216:55Tommy Novak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (3), Brady Skjei (1)0–2
- P117:16Ryan O'Reilly Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (4), Filip Forsberg (4)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:16Ryan O'Reilly Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Roman Josi (4), Filip Forsberg (4)BOS 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 55% → 71% +16NSH 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P216:55Tommy Novak Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (3), Brady Skjei (1)BOS 0 – 2 NSH · NSH 75% → 90% +15NSH 75% → 90%+15 pts
- P312:47Gustav Nyquist Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (4), Roman Josi (5)BOS 0 – 3 NSH · NSH 98% → >99% +1NSH 98% → >99%+1 pts
- P313:56Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 0 – 4 NSH · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 56%
- ML BOS +120 / NSH -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 50.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -128
- BOS +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.6 – 2.9 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH 0 Elo | NSH 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 50.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.030th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 4.632nd of 32 |
| 17th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −2.632nd of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.3% | Shot share | 56.9%2nd of 32 |
| 19th of 3288.6% | Save percentage | 86.4%30th of 32 |
| 20th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 0–428th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 2–0 NSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.