Boston Bruins at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Cole KoepkeGoals1
- Cole KoepkePoints1
Utah HC- Michael KesselringGoals1
- Nick SchmaltzAssists1
- Michael KesselringPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:46Michael Kesselring Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (6), Matias Maccelli (3)1–2
- P314:51Vladislav Kolyachonok Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nick Schmaltz (7), Clayton Keller (4)1–1
- P212:49Cole Koepke Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (4)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:49Cole Koepke Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (4)BOS 1 – 0 UTAH · BOS 54% → 74% +20BOS 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P314:51Vladislav Kolyachonok Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nick Schmaltz (7), Clayton Keller (4)BOS 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 10% → 48% +38UTAH 10% → 48%+38 pts
- OT2:46Michael Kesselring Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Logan Cooley (6), Matias Maccelli (3)BOS 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 49% → 97% +48UTAH 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML BOS -140 / UTAH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -128
- UTAH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 3.1 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −15 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +11 Elo | BOS 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 324.0 | Goals scored | 4.04th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.825th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.6% | Shot share | 45.7%28th of 32 |
| 26th of 3287.5% | Save percentage | 87.6%25th of 32 |
| 11th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.